Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Critique a Critic

Recently, I had a chance to read and critique a paper as part of my school work. Reviewing that paper made me think about the philosophy of science. Why the authors thought their method is right and I think they made lots of mistakes in their methodology?! 
The primary author has a Post-doc and the other one is a full professor, so how a grad student (whose mouth still smells milk - metaphor of being a baby in the academia) is giving such comments?! 

In this post I'm not critiquing that paper, I'm just having a small discussion about some observations I had. 

Before going more forward, I noticed that its more common in medical journals to publish a review paper that critiques other methods or projects and also report the observations from several published methods and papers together (secondary research). 

If we look more close to the meaning of science, it has the idea of systematically understand different phenomena, organize them, find patterns and make predictions based on the what we learned and called scientific method. One of the take home messages here is that your method or experiment should be systematic and repeatable. My critique was the modeling method and procedure. There's a saying that goes like this: if you want to simulate it you need to be able to model it. Lots of our decisions today are based on the simulations which we constructed based on our models. Robustness and limitations of the model are the key factors for our results. One good example is what happened today. I got an email this morning at 4:30am from the Dean of our school which informed us that the school is closed today, however the snow started at 11am - we knew at least from yesterday with good confidence the probabilities of: how much is going to snow, when its going to start, when is going to end, wind speed, min and max of temperature, humidity (hourly)- good modeling btw)

One of the method I used for critique part of the paper had the idea of Meta-Analysis (which is more popular in statistics). Not really meta-analysis since I didn't have enough data, but I contradicted some of the facts in the paper by showing the disagreements from other sources (this doesn't mean that for example if I found 4 papers that approve case A and 2 papers that contradict case A, 4 and 2 are going to cancel out!!). However, we all know that the choice of technique, data availability, current status of concepts and case studies, statistical method options, strength of evidences, different types of errors ... can change the results. 


My other comment had the idea of: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In the aforementioned paper, authors concluded an event based on their hypothesis that their case (reforestation) will not work. I think they didn't look carefully and skipped the fact that what they actually can measure and decide. Sometimes we need extensive knowledge and keen power of observation. 

My other critique was the information delivery or presentation of the paper. I was thinking about space limitation for presenting the finding and theory. I was also thinking about old movies, they were long. Directors had a good amount of time to include many details in their movie (like Lawrence of Arabia - almost 4 hours, think about it!). Current ones usually have more limitations (time-wise). 
Papers in different journal have distinct limitations in the number of pages and words. The paper I was reviewing had a "Supporting Information" section in addition to the primary paper which is good for readers (and also writers) if they want to get more information and material. One of my comments was, why even though the authors had such a valuable addition and space, they didn't used it properly! If you don't have such a space, you should put your finding and theory more effective (this is different from effective theory). This means eliminating some of the data, body of knowledge and observations.


After all, I like to see papers, even though they have lots of mistakes or conclusions that contradicts our current facts. One of the reasons is the examples we had before. For instance, Newton's laws of motion (even though at some point we all know quantum physics are really in play) have no visible repercussions if for example we want to calculate our gas mileage using Newton's laws. Another example is what happened to Barbara McClintock. she stopped publishing her results because of derisions she received during here work. At the end, she won the Nobe Prize finally in 1983. But what it would be happen if the scientific community didn't judge her earlier!

- Positivism
- Forest Plot




Monday, December 30, 2013

Mars One program and Graduate School program

Today I got an email which started with these sentences: 

"Did you know US astronaut Clayton Anderson was rejected by NASA for its astronaut training program 15 times, yet in 2007 he boarded the Space Shuttle Atlantis for a trip to the International Space Station. He proved anything can happen and no door is ever completely closed..."



Yes, my one way ticket to Mars did not get approved. So I guess I will not be one the astronauts who suppose to go to Mars in 2023. Over 200,000 people from all around the world applied to the Mars One program. In the initial round (four round totally) they chose 1058 applicants which means the chance of being in the first round is around %0.5! In the first round, of the chosen few, 586 are male and 472 are female with the majority age range between 26-35, although %10 of the pool are over 46. 
Still there is a slight chance to be part of Mars One program. They will reopen the application process again in late 2014. By 2015, sixteen teams of four individuals will be selected for seven years of full time training and eventually 4 of them (2 men and 2 women) will be selected to be the first humans who will settle on Mars. I was thinking why I wasn't one of them and thought they just needed to check my amazon account, apparently amazon doesn't offer prime membership in Mars! 

I made this graph which shows the percentage of total applicants by country (for higher quality please click on it)



The complete criteria for choosing astronauts are here (and the main part in the table below), which I found interesting. I think in some ways this table pretty much represents the characteristics of a graduate student! These days I'm working on my resolution for the new year and I diffidently like to apply these attributes in my life on Earth. 


Five Key Characteristics of an Astronaut

Characteristic Practical Applications
Resiliency
  • Your thought processes are persistent.
  • You persevere and remain productive.
  • You see the connection between your internal and external self.
  • You are at your best when things are at their worst.
  • You have indomitable spirit.
  • You understand the purpose of actions may not be clear in the moment, but there is good reason—you trust those who guide you.
  • You have a “Can do!” attitude.
Adaptability
  • You adapt to situations and individuals, while taking into account the context of the situation.
  • You know your boundaries, and how/when to extend them.
  • You are open and tolerant of ideas and approaches different from your own.
  • You draw from the unique nature of individual cultural backgrounds.
Curiosity
  • You ask questions to understand, not to simply get answers.
  • You are transferring knowledge to others, not simply showcasing what you know or what others do not.
Ability to Trust
  • You trust in yourself and maintain trust in others.
  • Your trust is built upon good judgment.
  • You have self-informed trust.
  • Your reflection on previous experiences helps to inform the exchange of trust.
Creativity / Resourcefulness
  • You are flexible in how an issue / problem / situation is approached.
  • You are not constrained by the way you were initially taught when seeking solutions.
  • Your humor is a creative resource, used appropriately as an emerging contextual response.
  • You have a good sense of play and spirit of playfulness.
  • You are aware of different forms of creativity.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Term projects

Personally I am very pro for term projects. For me, at least, helps to practice what I'v learned in the course of the semester. During the semester you are learning (or may be just encountering) lots of ideas and it would be ideal if you learn how to execute them. Even for some people ideas are worthless unless executed. In one of our courses in this semester we learned about limnology. Actually the objective of the course was much broader and limnology was just part of that. I just wanted to give you a sense of this class (Yes, I'm deeply thankful for our professor). Part of this class was accomplishing an analysis on a well studied reservoir and writing a paper in a standard format. Class was grouped up in several teams (not to mention that this helps teamwork as well - believe me, working as a team is much harder than you think. Sometimes you need to redo all things you've done already, but its fun! :)). Each team should prepare a write up and also a presentation for their work. Its very nice when you can see and use actual data and come up with new ideas beside developing skills you learned. At this moment we are in the middle of our write up section and I think we will have a wonderful term project. 

I made a video for some of the data we already processed:




I also made an interactive plot for visualizing rainfall data for the period that project was defined. For best experience please open it with Firefox browser. Select a time span or date you would like to see by holding the left button of your mouse (unless you are left handed and switched the button configuration) and double click to come back to the full graph. Ill have an update for this post. Let me know if you have any questions or ideas. 

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Water Density

Can you imagine a world without water! Water is strange! We need it for almost everything we do to be alive. Personally I was so happy after reading the news that about 2 percent of the soil of the surface of Mars is made up of water. 

We  know that density of water is changing with temperature, pressure and also salinity. Commonly in our calculation we consider having fresh water (with very low salinity) and 1 bar pressure. In this situation the maximum density of water is around 4 degree Celsius. 



I made a small software to calculate the density of water based on its temperature. You can download it here (32, 64). Please let me know if you have any questions or want me to add more features to this software. 

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Environmental Awareness

1- 
Choosing career path is an important decision in everyone's life. Personally I went down some roads and have some experiences as an engineer in three different sections. I worked in consultant and contractor firms. Also in a testing lab. 


                                              (Career vs. Job)


2- 
If you cant explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough (Albert Einstein). 


3-
If I didn't know the name of one of my courses, even though at this moment which is two weeks till the end of the semester, I had no idea what this course is about. No structure, poor delivery, no coherence between lectures, poor designed tests and exams, bad timing for the class, bad TA. On the other hand in my other course. OMG, everything is well structured. You know whats going on in each lecture. The class is so engaging which keeps you on board all the time during the semester. 


4- 
"Who saves one life, saves the world entire" (Thomas Keneally, Schindler List - originally from Mishnah Sanhedrin 4:9).


5-
I was thinking to join UN or World Bank after getting my degree. I was born in a so called third world country (see the definition here and here). I know and experienced lots of their problems (besides I love traveling). 


6-
We need Environmental Awareness.



7- 
I have decided to join academia. 

Monday, November 11, 2013

Emissions Gap Report 2013

I was thinking about the age of earth after watching this and having a look at  this. If you google the age of earth, it will tell you: 4.54 billion years. And the age of universe is: 13.8 billion years.
So it took the universe 9.26 billion years to give birth to the earth and four and half billion years for earth to come up with the diverse living species on it (and also this level of intellectuality). On the other hand our Sun got more than 6 billion years to finish its fuel. You got where Im going with this. In less than four billion years we will evolve to super humans, Sumans! The rate of evolution would be much faster and I don't think we really need that much time. On the contrary, think about what just we did to our beautiful planet during the last 100 years (with all of the pollution, increasing in temperature, accumulated CO2nukes, and lots of irreversible damages). Do you remember the Flash Crash(watch it here)? Almost the same thing will happen to the earth if we don't do anything about it. Do you think we can make it to the end of this century?!
This is a serious question. Last week it was a meeting called "The Global Emissions Gap Report 2013" in Germany (you can find Gap Report for year 2012 here - I will have another post on this report later). Basically countries (actually 13) who are producing more than 70 percent of global emissions are trying to fill the gap between what is expected as a pledge made by them to reduce emissions and the amount of emissions that is needed to keep the temperature change less than 2 degree Celsius till 2020. 

2020 is not that far, fingers crossed! 

One thing is for sure: Any delay will be very expensive for Sumans!